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paul ryan to do since he's not going to be vice president. what they want paul ryan to do once he and mitt romney lose the election next week. i sort of can't believe it didn't get more attention yesterday afternoon. it is also the purest and most direct rebuttal of that campaign's own rather heroic efforts to project some super human confidence about how much they think they are going to win on tuesday. joining us is a man who is in the business of knowing who is going to win, nate silver, for "the new york times." he's the who author of "the signal and the the noise." thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> a lot of headlines say that since mitt romney is going to pennsylvania, that must mean that pennsylvania is in play. from the numbers, do you believe pennsylvania is in play? >> you had the list of 24 polls and none had romney ahead. some were done that had romney up a couple points there, but no public pollster has had him with a lead all year. it's not just that obama is up there, but it's a state where it's been stable and
paul ryan to do since he's not going to be vice president. what they want paul ryan to do once he and mitt romney lose the election next week. i sort of can't believe it didn't get more attention yesterday afternoon. it is also the purest and most direct rebuttal of that campaign's own rather heroic efforts to project some super human confidence about how much they think they are going to win on tuesday. joining us is a man who is in the business of knowing who is going to win, nate silver, for...
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Nov 7, 2012
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so paul ryan has a future in the party. >> paul ryan has a future. reelected to his house seat. but the record for defeated vice presidential candidates seeking the nomination, if you want to begin with henry cabot lodge, richard nixonen in 1960 all the way through, it's a terrible record. from joe lieberman most recently to dan quayle to -- >> ryan i think more than any of those has an independent constituency in the party. they was intellectual leader of the party before he was picked. >> i agree he does and he certainly got a great following in the "wall street journal" editorial page and certainly conservative pundits. i think he's going to find out it's going to be a crowded road if he wants to pursue in the 2016. >> ifill: we have michael beschloss and richard norton smith. i am curious what you guys think of that speech. how does it rate? how does it rank among speeches of this kind? i thought it was a class act. it wasn't stevensonian but it was closer to al gore's speech we were just talking about than richard nixon's speech in 1962. >> almost everything is, richard. (l
so paul ryan has a future in the party. >> paul ryan has a future. reelected to his house seat. but the record for defeated vice presidential candidates seeking the nomination, if you want to begin with henry cabot lodge, richard nixonen in 1960 all the way through, it's a terrible record. from joe lieberman most recently to dan quayle to -- >> ryan i think more than any of those has an independent constituency in the party. they was intellectual leader of the party before he was...
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Nov 7, 2012
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they're going to blame sandy, chris christie, paul ryan. they're going to blame voters for being dumb and voting against their interests. i think and i've said this before, president obama because mitt romney was the wrong candidate at the wrong time. i think he would have won in 2008. he needed a time machine. a bad year to be the guy running against universal health care when you crafted a similar piece of legislation in massachusetts. running on a message of business and success and capitalism when that's demonized in the class war. it was just the wrong fit for this year. >> steve? >> yeah. you know, guys, i mean, this was obviously a momentous win for obama and the democrats and a lot to dissect in terms of demographics and where politics in this country go from here and something to be said for the idea that obama in the campaign was in slightly stronger shape than a lot of people appreciated. political scientists who sort of step away from the day-to-day campaigning and look at the structural factors said obama's approval rating is a
they're going to blame sandy, chris christie, paul ryan. they're going to blame voters for being dumb and voting against their interests. i think and i've said this before, president obama because mitt romney was the wrong candidate at the wrong time. i think he would have won in 2008. he needed a time machine. a bad year to be the guy running against universal health care when you crafted a similar piece of legislation in massachusetts. running on a message of business and success and...
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Nov 5, 2012
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of paul ryan. if he goes onto be vice president or if they lose, he has a big future in the republican party. he's going to be a player in republican politics for the next generation. >> how can the campaign both be super happy with him and there be no rift and the campaign be telling politico actually we wanted chris christie? i don't know how the stories come to be. i'm sure somebody is talking to somebody at politico saying we wish it was chris christie. but i have no idea. i doubt very much that's mitt romney's thoughts. he could have picked chris christie. there was no disqualifying reason why he didn't pick chris christie. he went with the first choice. and that was clearly paul ryan. >> so why are the leaks happening at all? to me the truth of the leak, whether or not paul ryan really is going to become a university professor and set himself up for the presidency if they lose this year seems beside this point what is important at this point is people close to him are putting that out there a
of paul ryan. if he goes onto be vice president or if they lose, he has a big future in the republican party. he's going to be a player in republican politics for the next generation. >> how can the campaign both be super happy with him and there be no rift and the campaign be telling politico actually we wanted chris christie? i don't know how the stories come to be. i'm sure somebody is talking to somebody at politico saying we wish it was chris christie. but i have no idea. i doubt...
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pick up to and in wisconsin thanks to paul ryan being a running mate. maybe pick up the six in iowa. an uphill battle. polls show the president leading by five points are so. that is how you, altogether 16 electoral votes to offset the 18 you potentially lose in ohio. anyone's guess, but something will pursue now with sarah palin who remembers the pressure of this night four years ago. very good to have you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much. nice to speak with you. neil: have you think it is going? >> well, as predicted, very, very close. i was just trying to pay as close attention as i could to your commentary, trying to hear what you were saying about ohio. that, of course, is a bit of a bellwether and very pivotal. what is new with ohio, maybe you have a better update and i do. neil: as i try to say, it's hard with all these different states coming in. too close to call. you know, there is a strategy that the romney folks have. if they were to lose ohio, i should stress, you know this better than anybody, the first numbers that come in
pick up to and in wisconsin thanks to paul ryan being a running mate. maybe pick up the six in iowa. an uphill battle. polls show the president leading by five points are so. that is how you, altogether 16 electoral votes to offset the 18 you potentially lose in ohio. anyone's guess, but something will pursue now with sarah palin who remembers the pressure of this night four years ago. very good to have you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much. nice to speak with you. neil:...
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Nov 20, 2012
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tonight's question, who is paul ryan going to fight for? text a for the rich, text b for the middle class. you can always go to our blog. we'll bring you results later on in the show. let's bring in bill pascrell of new jersey tonight. also robert riech. gentlemen, great to have you with us tonight. congressman, let's start with you first. what do you expect with paul ryan at the helm of these negotiations? >> it doesn't send -- i'm not frightened about that situation. in fact, one of the things that paul does bring to the table, and i think it's necessary here, ed, is urgency. this is an urgent situation we need to address. if we kick this can down the street, and i would contend that if you do away with all of the bush tax cuts and we supposedly start anew in january or february, i don't think that helps us down the path. i think we could strike a deal to get 218 votes. we need about 30 or 40 votes on the republican side in the house of representatives. this is a time when we have to step up to the plate. >> what do you have to give up to
tonight's question, who is paul ryan going to fight for? text a for the rich, text b for the middle class. you can always go to our blog. we'll bring you results later on in the show. let's bring in bill pascrell of new jersey tonight. also robert riech. gentlemen, great to have you with us tonight. congressman, let's start with you first. what do you expect with paul ryan at the helm of these negotiations? >> it doesn't send -- i'm not frightened about that situation. in fact, one of the...
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Nov 9, 2012
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i know paul ryan. paul ryan is not a liar. and with mitt romney, the whole question about the jeeps, there's a dispute whether chrysler, which owns jeeps jeep is going to have to go to italy. there's a story about that. on the china issue overall for romney, that was an issue that didn't work. there are issues that poll well, but when you try to rely on them in a campaign, they just don't get you any votes. i think china is one of them. host: we'll go to jim on the republican line. you're on with fred barnes of the "weekly standard." caller: hi. i was going to say i believe what the lady on the republican line said earlier. that republicans don't need to change. we need the conservative stand, and the biggest problem is that i believe the country is getting to the point that they are so dependant on the handouts of the government that that's what they are looking for. they are looking for a liberal, somebody that's willing to give them anything they want. guest: john, i have to say -- it is john? caller: jim. guest: i have to
i know paul ryan. paul ryan is not a liar. and with mitt romney, the whole question about the jeeps, there's a dispute whether chrysler, which owns jeeps jeep is going to have to go to italy. there's a story about that. on the china issue overall for romney, that was an issue that didn't work. there are issues that poll well, but when you try to rely on them in a campaign, they just don't get you any votes. i think china is one of them. host: we'll go to jim on the republican line. you're on...
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i think paul ryan gets it, too. >> ryan is an anti-immigrant republican. he took up all this language they've used. you know, mitt romney went on and talked about people self-deporting. when you do that and when you try to suppress the vote, i think you force people to vote. i think african-americans and hispanics said, it doesn't matter what they try to do to us, we're going -- >> john, your thoughts. >> let me say something quick about this voter suppression stuff. what the republicans did was stupid. i agree with you on that because it gets people more riled up. go after the vote. don't try to stop the vote. i think the whole thing was ridiculous, and i want to get that on the record. >> well-said, john feehery. you're a jack kemp republican, an admirable thing to be. big tent. >> get more votes. >> it's a game of addition. >> we're watching the debate begin -- knives are always out when you lose an election. we have to expect this is going to be a rough fight on the republican right wing side. >> the country will be better off if the kind of thing john
i think paul ryan gets it, too. >> ryan is an anti-immigrant republican. he took up all this language they've used. you know, mitt romney went on and talked about people self-deporting. when you do that and when you try to suppress the vote, i think you force people to vote. i think african-americans and hispanics said, it doesn't matter what they try to do to us, we're going -- >> john, your thoughts. >> let me say something quick about this voter suppression stuff. what the...
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>> paul ryan is different because he was the vp. >> probably an unfair comparison. to add to your point, a lot of rising stars in the republican national convention and i thought rubio was so clearly sort of the class of that class. >> went after clint eastwood. >> fair point. context is everything. we'll be right back with the three of you. first, trivia time. we asked what was the fourth closest state by percentage in the 2008 presidential election. now this stunned me. the answer is montana. as we told 0 you, missouri, north carolina, and indiana were the three closest states, all decided by less than a point. mccain won montana by just over 2.2 percentage points making the race there even closer than in florida. you can stump your political junkie family members at the thanksgiving table. they will not know that. of course they'll have been watching "the daily rundown" so they may know it. >>> the third agency of government, i would do away with education, the commerce and, let's see -- i can't. the third one i can't. oops. >> it's still so painful these many mo
>> paul ryan is different because he was the vp. >> probably an unfair comparison. to add to your point, a lot of rising stars in the republican national convention and i thought rubio was so clearly sort of the class of that class. >> went after clint eastwood. >> fair point. context is everything. we'll be right back with the three of you. first, trivia time. we asked what was the fourth closest state by percentage in the 2008 presidential election. now this stunned...
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Nov 6, 2012
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this is paul ryan over here, eastern iowa. joe biden. governor romney, the president, if you put them all on, it starts to look like that, you come back out to the map. what you see here is, much of the country, if you live on the west coast, you live up here in the prairie, you live in texas or across the deep south, you're not getting a campaign. they're not coming to see your state unless they're trying to raise money. or unless you happen to be in a tv market that bumps into one of these other states. this is florida, you see a lot of visits. you break it down by candidate, where is the president, this is the i-4 corridor. this is an area i know ari fleischer is interested in. the democrats will win the southernmost counties, will the jewish votes be less. will the president get less because of the dustup with governor romney and israel in the campaign. you won't see the president out here. this is the most conservative republican part of the state. you see them both competing here in the i-4 corridor, where you find independents. vi
this is paul ryan over here, eastern iowa. joe biden. governor romney, the president, if you put them all on, it starts to look like that, you come back out to the map. what you see here is, much of the country, if you live on the west coast, you live up here in the prairie, you live in texas or across the deep south, you're not getting a campaign. they're not coming to see your state unless they're trying to raise money. or unless you happen to be in a tv market that bumps into one of these...
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this is a state that mitt romney and paul ryan have never been able to crack. their message to the middle class voteers in the state, it is not working and they went back there today as a last ditch hail mary effort but we feel confident the people of ohio will remember he helped the manufacturing sector and saved the automobile industry. >>shepard: but joe biden could be a last ditch effort. >>guest: ohio is very important, no question. that is why the have. is there. we have been leading in polls and we have more than 130 offices across the state. we are leading in early voting and we hear good things on the ground. we feel great about ohio and it is another state we look forward to counting the votes tonight. >>shepard: republicans insist you have underestimated the enthusiasm for the romney campaign in the waning days and that is how they will make it up. concern? >>guest: we will see. i suspect they will be called on their bluff in terms of their secret internal polls and what though say about their enthusiasm. the president has seen hundreds of thousands
this is a state that mitt romney and paul ryan have never been able to crack. their message to the middle class voteers in the state, it is not working and they went back there today as a last ditch hail mary effort but we feel confident the people of ohio will remember he helped the manufacturing sector and saved the automobile industry. >>shepard: but joe biden could be a last ditch effort. >>guest: ohio is very important, no question. that is why the have. is there. we have been...
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paul ryan is leading the charge. here he is about his own shellacking. >> you don't think there's a mandate? >> i don't, because they would have put nancy pelosi in charge of the house of representatives. these ideas we're talking about are popular ideas. >> these ideas we talked about, i think they're popular ideas. they were so popular, michelle, he lost the presidential election, he lost his home state of wisconsin, he even lost his hometown of janesville, but he says he has a mandate. >> look, mr. ryan has visions of 2016 dancing in his head. he can't admit that what he's based his entire legislative career on, this budget plan of his s a loser. he has also made noises, as dana points out, he wants to be part of the solution going forward. he's going to be a little more conciliatory than they have been in the past if they want to get anything done. because the republicans don't want this fiscal cliff bomb to go off, because then their priorities are going to be in the firing line. >> you could have fooled me, mic
paul ryan is leading the charge. here he is about his own shellacking. >> you don't think there's a mandate? >> i don't, because they would have put nancy pelosi in charge of the house of representatives. these ideas we're talking about are popular ideas. >> these ideas we talked about, i think they're popular ideas. they were so popular, michelle, he lost the presidential election, he lost his home state of wisconsin, he even lost his hometown of janesville, but he says he...
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paul ryan? to strike a deal? the same paul ryan who's been flexible time and time again? the same guy whose ideas were rejected by the american people on election night? who wanted to voucherize medicare and cut taxes for the rich? he's their guy to work out a deal on taxes? the truth is a lot of republicans don't want to deal. they want to see the error of their ways even when they're called out on. >> why wouldn't a middle-class voter look at that and say these guys, the gop, are all about protecting the rich? >> we're the party that wants growth, pro-growth policies. let the democratic party be the party of government growing revenues. this country doesn't need two liberal or democratic parties. yes, we need to show our policies are appealing and work for the middle class, but we don't need to abandon our principles. this country doesn't need two democratic parties. >> don't be fooled. when a republican says pro growth, what he really means is trickle-down. it's never worked. but that doesn't stop republicans from pulling out their old playbook. here's what influential
paul ryan? to strike a deal? the same paul ryan who's been flexible time and time again? the same guy whose ideas were rejected by the american people on election night? who wanted to voucherize medicare and cut taxes for the rich? he's their guy to work out a deal on taxes? the truth is a lot of republicans don't want to deal. they want to see the error of their ways even when they're called out on. >> why wouldn't a middle-class voter look at that and say these guys, the gop, are all...
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paul ryan, go. >> some of the turnout. some of the turnout in urban areas, which definitely gave president obama the big margin to win this race. >> president obama won reelection because of high turnout in urban areas. that's what paul ryan says presumably because it makes him feel good to think that's must be what happened. here's what we know. nbc news reporting that in the swing states, president obama did as well as democrats usually do in urban areas. so he did well there, but pretty much par for the course. if you look at the eight swing states the president won, president obama did only marginally better in some of them. two states, he actually did worse. florida was the only state where there was a significant increase. just florida. a state the president didn't even have to win in order to win the election. so paul ryan's theory about how and why they lost, the surprise urban turnout might make him feel better about what happened, but it doesn't explain why. okay. now it's time for round two. things people are sa
paul ryan, go. >> some of the turnout. some of the turnout in urban areas, which definitely gave president obama the big margin to win this race. >> president obama won reelection because of high turnout in urban areas. that's what paul ryan says presumably because it makes him feel good to think that's must be what happened. here's what we know. nbc news reporting that in the swing states, president obama did as well as democrats usually do in urban areas. so he did well there, but...
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ryan, the vp search cha chose paul ryan. he arrived sometime before the governor arrived. the hotel they were staying at is attached to the convention center. i expect he was working on the concession speech. one thing he did say earlier when talking about how he hadn't thought about the other speech, only wrote a victory speech he didn't share it with his top advisers, with ann. something he was going to do anyway and i suspect they were putting on the finishing touches and calling the president. >> what i keep thinking about is seven years, basically, he's been on this quest and as we remember when he went up to the debates every night, he would write on the podium, first word, dad. >> his father, of course, ran for president, was governor of michigan, ran for president back in 1968 was forced out of the race after making an unfortunate comment about being brainwashed by the generals in vietnam. it's been a long journey, matthew dowd, for mitt romney. but i wonder after the seven years has he left any stamp on the republic
ryan, the vp search cha chose paul ryan. he arrived sometime before the governor arrived. the hotel they were staying at is attached to the convention center. i expect he was working on the concession speech. one thing he did say earlier when talking about how he hadn't thought about the other speech, only wrote a victory speech he didn't share it with his top advisers, with ann. something he was going to do anyway and i suspect they were putting on the finishing touches and calling the...
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i'm out with eat great crowd behind me, ready for paul ryan. >> i see. i'm hearing lots of different polls tonight. all the republicans telling me mitt romney has it in the bag. all the obama people telling me, no, the president is going to walk it. what is the reality? you're in the area of america that could be utterly crucial. how are you seeing wisconsin, ohio, iowa, that kind of collection tomorrow night, how important will these be and which one could be the turning point? >> all across the midwest, it's incredibly point. i was just in ohio the other day with mitt romney. i've been in iowa about a week ago with the governor there. there's huge excitement. but here in wisconsin, we had a recall six months ago today. we won by a bigger margin than we did two years earlier. you see the momentum. you saw it in august when paul ryan was added to the ticket and you really saw it in the first debate in denver when people across the country came out to support mitt romney. it's going to be that close, but we're going to win here in wisconsin and other plac
i'm out with eat great crowd behind me, ready for paul ryan. >> i see. i'm hearing lots of different polls tonight. all the republicans telling me mitt romney has it in the bag. all the obama people telling me, no, the president is going to walk it. what is the reality? you're in the area of america that could be utterly crucial. how are you seeing wisconsin, ohio, iowa, that kind of collection tomorrow night, how important will these be and which one could be the turning point? >>...
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romney's running mate paul ryan won his re-election campaign for his house seat. >> joining us for more analysis is ron freeman. ron, good morning. >> good morning, kelly. >> ron, what's your initial reaction here to the outcome? what's the biggest impact this is going to have on policy? >> i think the biggest impact it will have on policy is we have a president we know well. we know what his policies are. we know what he's tried to do. the real question is whether the congress will see that the negation approach has not worked for them and they need now to come together to a grand bargain as they face the imminent fiscal cliff, even during the lame duck congress. >> i thought for at least this morning we could put the uncertainty question out of our minds. haven't all of our problems been solved? shouldn't we know that everyone's going to come together in the bipartisan spirit they're so espousing in these speeches overnight? >> kelly, as always, you ask just the right question. as we know, governor romney was obliged because of the current nature of the republican party to run a very
romney's running mate paul ryan won his re-election campaign for his house seat. >> joining us for more analysis is ron freeman. ron, good morning. >> good morning, kelly. >> ron, what's your initial reaction here to the outcome? what's the biggest impact this is going to have on policy? >> i think the biggest impact it will have on policy is we have a president we know well. we know what his policies are. we know what he's tried to do. the real question is whether the...
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paul ryan is in vienna, ohio later tonight. governor romney is in cleveland tomorrow. president obama appearing tomorrow in ohio. deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter joins us now. your team keeps saying the governor is in pennsylvania now out of desperation but if he's got no shot there, why has your campaign been sending president clinton to pennsylvania in the home stretch? if the state is not in play, couldn't that time be put to better use somewhere else? >> well, president clinton has traveled through every single battleground state for us. we are enormously thankful. but we're not taking anything for granted. you know, pennsylvania has tightened, absolutely. if i were working on the romney campaign i would probably be giving it a shot, too. >> you don't think it's desperation for the romney campaign to go there? >> well, i think that -- well, you know, i did notice that their super pac admitted yesterday that the reason that they went in there is because they didn't have anywhere else to spend money. so they don't have a route to 270 through ohio. they're be
paul ryan is in vienna, ohio later tonight. governor romney is in cleveland tomorrow. president obama appearing tomorrow in ohio. deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter joins us now. your team keeps saying the governor is in pennsylvania now out of desperation but if he's got no shot there, why has your campaign been sending president clinton to pennsylvania in the home stretch? if the state is not in play, couldn't that time be put to better use somewhere else? >> well, president...
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there is a lot of potential for paul ryan, and john boehner will give him the boy. i think he stays -- the voice. i think he stays in congress until it least 2016. host: robert, south carolina. democratic caller. caller: everybody keeps talking about government cutbacks, but we do not cut back both houses. if we paid them for each session that they attend and make them pay their own retirement like the average worker, maybe we will start to see some results. they are getting away with too much. we treat them like royalty. host: gail russell chaddock, why don't you take that one? guest: a lot of the members feel that they have cut back a lot because of criticism and close looking at what the benefits are that members achieve. there have been suggestions from the left and right that if members do not produce a budget and do what they are supposed to do by law, you do not pay them. i think you find that there is growing support for some kind of sanction. it is striking that a party with 9% approval rating should return so many incumbents, but in public education, overa
there is a lot of potential for paul ryan, and john boehner will give him the boy. i think he stays -- the voice. i think he stays in congress until it least 2016. host: robert, south carolina. democratic caller. caller: everybody keeps talking about government cutbacks, but we do not cut back both houses. if we paid them for each session that they attend and make them pay their own retirement like the average worker, maybe we will start to see some results. they are getting away with too much....
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they have paul ryan going to cleveland and richmond. the governor pulling out all the stops to not let it ever be said he didn't do all he could to get as many people out to the polls as possible. as he said in columbus he said not only was he going to do that work but he implored his supporters to do it as well. >> tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow. perhaps some of your friends and family have not made up their minds who they are going to vote for. when you talk to hem ask to go beyond the speeches and the ads and the attacks and look at the record. talk is cheap but a record is real and it's earned. bill: as promised, this what is we were waiting for ... martha: who are those two people? i don't recognize them from the back. bill: this is governor romney and his wife ann cast their ballot for ... you can take one guess what's happening there. this is in their hometown of massachusetts. it's a hotbed of democratic votes. i have to cut into those votes to have a chance in ohio. later he goes to pittsburgh. if you look at the mate was all
they have paul ryan going to cleveland and richmond. the governor pulling out all the stops to not let it ever be said he didn't do all he could to get as many people out to the polls as possible. as he said in columbus he said not only was he going to do that work but he implored his supporters to do it as well. >> tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow. perhaps some of your friends and family have not made up their minds who they are going to vote for. when you talk to hem ask to go beyond...
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my big question, what role does paul ryan play in all of this. he's pretty far out there a national figure, said no new taxes and john boehner will have to try and lead some compromises in his own caucus with a new national leader. >> do you see compromise as possible? because of the fiscal cliff. >> here is the thing. in the olden days when i covered the congress, i used to say, they will end up doing the right thick. i no longer think that. i now believe they could all retreat into their corners, only thing that gives me hope it's in their own self-interest to get this done. >> it's in everyone's self interest. david, as you survey the landscape of the incoming congress, any likelihood that members will be able to come together, work with the president on immigration reform, climate change, tax reform, entitlement reform? >> i do, anderson. i'm increasingly optimistic we won't go over the fiscal cliff. the sharp drop in the markets today send a clear signal to congress and the president that you guys better not let us do this. that you will thr
my big question, what role does paul ryan play in all of this. he's pretty far out there a national figure, said no new taxes and john boehner will have to try and lead some compromises in his own caucus with a new national leader. >> do you see compromise as possible? because of the fiscal cliff. >> here is the thing. in the olden days when i covered the congress, i used to say, they will end up doing the right thick. i no longer think that. i now believe they could all retreat...